Monolith Analytics

孫子Custom Analytics

知己知彼，百戰不殆

Know the other side and know yourself, and a hundred battles hold no danger. — Sun Tzu

Any race, any population. We build the model for the question you actually have — who will vote, who can be moved, where the margin is, who funds whom — and hand you the answer as maps, ranked lists and a memo you can act on the same day.

Questions it answers

Which precincts decide this district, and how many votes are really in them?
Who in this population turns out, who almost does, and who needs a reason?
Where is our coalition thin, and whose word would carry there?
Who gave to both sides last cycle, and who is likely to give again?
What happens to the margin if turnout looks like the last midterm instead of the last presidential year?

What we build

Likely voters and turnout

A score for every voter in the universe, from their own vote history, so a budget is spent on people who will actually cast a ballot.

Target universes

Persuasion and turnout lists sized to your doors, phones and mail, ranked so the first thousand contacts are the best thousand.

Ground truth by geography

Results and voters mapped down to fine hexagons, not just precincts, so you see the blocks that move a district.

Scenarios and forecasts

Turnout and margin under the conditions you choose, and an election-night read that tells you early which way it is going.

Donors and money

Every donor matched into one person across federal and state filings: who gives, to whom, how much, and a likely next gift.

Networks and influence

Who hosts for whom, who waits on whom, and whose support carries weight with the people you need.

Any race, any population

Races

Legislative, congressional, county, city, school board, judicial retention, ballot measures, and the primaries before them.

Populations

A district, a precinct set, a demographic, a union local's members, a congregation's neighborhood, a donor base, a volunteer list.

How it is delivered

Your question, in a sentence. We agree what decision the analysis serves before any model is run.
The data, assembled. Voter file, results, Census geography and campaign finance, joined and checked.
The answer, in the form you use. Maps, ranked lists, and a short memo with the number behind every claim.
Yours to keep. The files come with it, and we refresh them as new filings and voter files arrive.

Running on Nebraska data today. For another state, we build the same analysis wherever its voter file, results and finance records are available.

Bring us the race

Tell us the district, the population and the decision in front of you. We will tell you what the data can answer, and what it cannot.

Commission an analysis