{
 "as_of": "2026-10-23",
 "days_to_election": 11,
 "races": [
  {
   "id": "senate",
   "office": "U.S. Senate",
   "dem_side": "Dan Osborn (I)",
   "rep_side": "Pete Ricketts (R)",
   "share_2024": 46.7,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 48.1,
     "lo": 43.1,
     "hi": 53.1,
     "p_win": 27.1
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 48.2,
     "lo": 43.3,
     "hi": 53.3,
     "p_win": 28.8
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 47.5,
     "lo": 42.5,
     "hi": 52.5,
     "p_win": 21.2
    }
   },
   "wave": [
    {
     "passthrough": 0.2,
     "env": 0.046,
     "p_win": 14.9,
     "base": false
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 0.4,
     "env": 0.091,
     "p_win": 19.0,
     "base": false
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 0.6,
     "env": 0.137,
     "p_win": 23.0,
     "base": false
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 0.8,
     "env": 0.182,
     "p_win": 27.1,
     "base": true
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 1.0,
     "env": 0.228,
     "p_win": 31.5,
     "base": false
    }
   ],
   "wave_base": 27.1,
   "note": "Osborn is an independent; the Democratic nominee withdrew."
  },
  {
   "id": "ne2",
   "office": "U.S. House, NE-2 (Omaha)",
   "dem_side": "Denise Powell (D)",
   "rep_side": "Brinker Harding (R)",
   "share_2024": 49.1,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 53.1,
     "lo": 47.3,
     "hi": 58.9,
     "p_win": 81.1
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 53.3,
     "lo": 47.5,
     "hi": 59.0,
     "p_win": 82.5
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 52.5,
     "lo": 46.8,
     "hi": 58.2,
     "p_win": 76.2
    }
   },
   "wave": [
    {
     "passthrough": 0.2,
     "env": 0.046,
     "p_win": 66.8,
     "base": false
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 0.4,
     "env": 0.091,
     "p_win": 72.0,
     "base": false
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 0.6,
     "env": 0.137,
     "p_win": 76.9,
     "base": false
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 0.8,
     "env": 0.182,
     "p_win": 81.1,
     "base": true
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 1.0,
     "env": 0.228,
     "p_win": 85.1,
     "base": false
    }
   ],
   "wave_base": 81.1,
   "note": "Open seat: Don Bacon is retiring."
  },
  {
   "id": "ne1",
   "office": "U.S. House, NE-1 (Lincoln and east)",
   "dem_side": "Chris Backemeyer (D)",
   "rep_side": "Mike Flood (R)",
   "share_2024": 39.9,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 44.0,
     "lo": 38.4,
     "hi": 49.6,
     "p_win": 4.1
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 44.2,
     "lo": 38.6,
     "hi": 49.9,
     "p_win": 4.7
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 43.3,
     "lo": 37.7,
     "hi": 48.9,
     "p_win": 2.4
    }
   },
   "wave": [
    {
     "passthrough": 0.2,
     "env": 0.046,
     "p_win": 1.2,
     "base": false
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 0.4,
     "env": 0.091,
     "p_win": 1.9,
     "base": false
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 0.6,
     "env": 0.137,
     "p_win": 2.8,
     "base": false
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 0.8,
     "env": 0.182,
     "p_win": 4.1,
     "base": true
    },
    {
     "passthrough": 1.0,
     "env": 0.228,
     "p_win": 5.5,
     "base": false
    }
   ],
   "wave_base": 4.1,
   "note": "Flood is the incumbent."
  },
  {
   "id": "governor",
   "office": "Governor",
   "dem_side": "Lynne Walz (D)",
   "rep_side": "Jim Pillen (R)",
   "share_2024": null,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 44.9,
     "lo": 39.4,
     "hi": 50.3,
     "p_win": 6.0
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 45.0,
     "lo": 39.5,
     "hi": 50.6,
     "p_win": 7.0
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 44.4,
     "lo": 38.9,
     "hi": 49.9,
     "p_win": 4.8
    }
   },
   "wave": null,
   "wave_base": null,
   "note": "Pillen is the incumbent; the anchor is the 2022 race."
  },
  {
   "id": "sos",
   "office": "Secretary of State",
   "dem_side": "Sarah Slattery (D)",
   "rep_side": "Scott Petersen (R)",
   "share_2024": null,
   "plurality": true,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 39.8,
     "lo": 30.8,
     "hi": 48.8,
     "p_win": 13.6,
     "field": [
      {
       "name": "Sarah Slattery (D)",
       "mid": 39.8,
       "lo": 30.8,
       "hi": 48.8,
       "p_win": 13.6
      },
      {
       "name": "Scott Petersen (R)",
       "mid": 51.7,
       "lo": 42.3,
       "hi": 60.8,
       "p_win": 86.4
      },
      {
       "name": "Bob Krist (America First)",
       "mid": 7.0,
       "lo": 2.1,
       "hi": 11.9,
       "p_win": 0.0
      },
      {
       "name": "Paul Rumbaugh (Working People)",
       "mid": 1.5,
       "lo": 0.4,
       "hi": 2.6,
       "p_win": 0.0
      }
     ]
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 40.3,
     "lo": 31.4,
     "hi": 49.3,
     "p_win": 15.2,
     "field": [
      {
       "name": "Sarah Slattery (D)",
       "mid": 40.3,
       "lo": 31.4,
       "hi": 49.3,
       "p_win": 15.2
      },
      {
       "name": "Scott Petersen (R)",
       "mid": 51.2,
       "lo": 41.9,
       "hi": 60.2,
       "p_win": 84.8
      },
      {
       "name": "Bob Krist (America First)",
       "mid": 7.0,
       "lo": 2.1,
       "hi": 11.9,
       "p_win": 0.0
      },
      {
       "name": "Paul Rumbaugh (Working People)",
       "mid": 1.5,
       "lo": 0.4,
       "hi": 2.6,
       "p_win": 0.0
      }
     ]
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 38.3,
     "lo": 29.6,
     "hi": 47.2,
     "p_win": 8.0,
     "field": [
      {
       "name": "Sarah Slattery (D)",
       "mid": 38.3,
       "lo": 29.6,
       "hi": 47.2,
       "p_win": 8.0
      },
      {
       "name": "Scott Petersen (R)",
       "mid": 53.2,
       "lo": 44.0,
       "hi": 62.0,
       "p_win": 92.0
      },
      {
       "name": "Bob Krist (America First)",
       "mid": 7.0,
       "lo": 2.1,
       "hi": 11.9,
       "p_win": 0.0
      },
      {
       "name": "Paul Rumbaugh (Working People)",
       "mid": 1.5,
       "lo": 0.4,
       "hi": 2.6,
       "p_win": 0.0
      }
     ]
    }
   },
   "wave": null,
   "wave_base": null,
   "note": "Open seat: Petersen beat the incumbent in May. A plurality race; no public polls, so Krist's share is our assumption."
  }
 ],
 "legislature": {
  "r_median": 29.0,
  "r_p10": 27.0,
  "r_p90": 31.0,
  "p_r_ge_33": 1.3,
  "p_d_ge_17": 90.6,
  "d_median": 19.0,
  "u_median": 2.0,
  "distribution": {
   "24": 0.18,
   "25": 1.44,
   "26": 5.08,
   "27": 12.47,
   "28": 20.3,
   "29": 24.03,
   "30": 19.71,
   "31": 11.19,
   "32": 4.31,
   "33": 1.13,
   "34": 0.15
  },
  "districts": [
   {
    "ld": 2,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "Dean Helmick (R)",
    "trail": "Caitlin Knutson (D)",
    "may": 58.1,
    "p_lead": 74.3,
    "median": 54.0
   },
   {
    "ld": 4,
    "kind": "R v U",
    "lead": "Cindy Maxwell- Ostdiek (U)",
    "trail": "R. Brad von Gillern (R)",
    "may": 53.4,
    "p_lead": 52.5,
    "median": 50.4
   },
   {
    "ld": 6,
    "kind": "D v D",
    "lead": "Patrick Leahy (D)",
    "trail": "Nate Ostdiek (D)",
    "may": 59.3,
    "p_lead": 91.8,
    "median": 57.7
   },
   {
    "ld": 8,
    "kind": "D v D",
    "lead": "Erin Feichtinger (D)",
    "trail": "Josh Livingston (D)",
    "may": 78.5,
    "p_lead": 100.0,
    "median": 74.2
   },
   {
    "ld": 10,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "Cindy Johnson (D)",
    "trail": "Rebecca Rens (R)",
    "may": 60.1,
    "p_lead": 91.4,
    "median": 58.3
   },
   {
    "ld": 12,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "Merv Riepe (R)",
    "trail": "Christy Knorr (D)",
    "may": 51.7,
    "p_lead": 36.7,
    "median": 47.9
   },
   {
    "ld": 14,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "SuAnn Witt (D)",
    "trail": "Bill Bowes (R)",
    "may": 55.6,
    "p_lead": 75.2,
    "median": 54.1
   },
   {
    "ld": 16,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "Ted Japp (R)",
    "trail": "Cindy Chatt (D)",
    "may": 63.0,
    "p_lead": 93.4,
    "median": 59.1
   },
   {
    "ld": 18,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "Jess Goldoni (D)",
    "trail": "Taylor Royal (R)",
    "may": 57.7,
    "p_lead": 83.3,
    "median": 55.8
   },
   {
    "ld": 20,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "John Fredrickson (D)",
    "trail": "Chris Anderson (R)",
    "may": 70.4,
    "p_lead": 99.9,
    "median": 68.0
   },
   {
    "ld": 22,
    "kind": "unopposed",
    "lead": "Dawson Brunswick (R)",
    "trail": null,
    "may": null,
    "p_lead": 100.0,
    "median": null
   },
   {
    "ld": 24,
    "kind": "R v U",
    "lead": "Jana Hughes (R)",
    "trail": "Dan Winter (U)",
    "may": 75.1,
    "p_lead": 100.0,
    "median": 71.1
   },
   {
    "ld": 26,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "George Dungan (D)",
    "trail": "Tobias Howard (R)",
    "may": 72.4,
    "p_lead": 99.9,
    "median": 70.0
   },
   {
    "ld": 28,
    "kind": "D v U",
    "lead": "Patty Pansing Brooks (D)",
    "trail": "Colby L. Woodson (U)",
    "may": 85.2,
    "p_lead": 100.0,
    "median": 80.9
   },
   {
    "ld": 30,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "Cally Ideus (R)",
    "trail": "Janet M. Bock (D)",
    "may": 56.4,
    "p_lead": 66.9,
    "median": 52.7
   },
   {
    "ld": 32,
    "kind": "R v R",
    "lead": "Mark Schoenrock (R)",
    "trail": "Shay Smith (R)",
    "may": 60.9,
    "p_lead": 90.8,
    "median": 57.3
   },
   {
    "ld": 34,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "Loren Lippincott (R)",
    "trail": "Ben Blodgett (D)",
    "may": 67.1,
    "p_lead": 97.3,
    "median": 61.6
   },
   {
    "ld": 36,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "Darin Tompkins (D)",
    "trail": "Rick Holdcroft (R)",
    "may": 52.9,
    "p_lead": 61.0,
    "median": 51.7
   },
   {
    "ld": 38,
    "kind": "R v R",
    "lead": "Tim Anderson (R)",
    "trail": "Janell Anderson Ehrke (R)",
    "may": 52.7,
    "p_lead": 54.1,
    "median": 50.6
   },
   {
    "ld": 40,
    "kind": "unopposed",
    "lead": "Barry DeKay (R)",
    "trail": null,
    "may": null,
    "p_lead": 100.0,
    "median": null
   },
   {
    "ld": 41,
    "kind": "D v R",
    "lead": "Joe Johnson (R)",
    "trail": "Jeremy Heneger (D)",
    "may": 60.6,
    "p_lead": 87.7,
    "median": 57.1
   },
   {
    "ld": 42,
    "kind": "R v U",
    "lead": "Mike Jacobson (R)",
    "trail": "Shaylee S. Scranton (U)",
    "may": 74.2,
    "p_lead": 100.0,
    "median": 70.7
   },
   {
    "ld": 44,
    "kind": "unopposed",
    "lead": "Teresa Ibach (R)",
    "trail": null,
    "may": null,
    "p_lead": 100.0,
    "median": null
   },
   {
    "ld": 46,
    "kind": "unopposed",
    "lead": "Danielle Conrad (D)",
    "trail": null,
    "may": null,
    "p_lead": 100.0,
    "median": null
   },
   {
    "ld": 48,
    "kind": "R v R",
    "lead": "Brian Hardin (R)",
    "trail": "Jessica M. Landers (R)",
    "may": 76.5,
    "p_lead": 100.0,
    "median": 72.7
   }
  ]
 },
 "county": [
  {
   "county": "Lancaster",
   "office": "County Attorney",
   "dem_side": "Randall Ritnour (D)",
   "rep_side": "Pat Condon (R, incumbent)",
   "share_2022": 49.7,
   "proxy_2022": null,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 55.4,
     "lo": 45.8,
     "hi": 64.5,
     "p_win": 82.0
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 55.8,
     "lo": 46.1,
     "hi": 65.0,
     "p_win": 83.6
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 54.3,
     "lo": 44.6,
     "hi": 63.5,
     "p_win": 76.8
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "county": "Lancaster",
   "office": "Sheriff (open seat)",
   "dem_side": "Jay Pitts (D)",
   "rep_side": "Ben Houchin (R)",
   "share_2022": 45.1,
   "proxy_2022": null,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 50.6,
     "lo": 41.3,
     "hi": 60.2,
     "p_win": 54.3
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 51.0,
     "lo": 41.6,
     "hi": 60.5,
     "p_win": 56.5
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 49.5,
     "lo": 40.1,
     "hi": 59.0,
     "p_win": 46.3
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "county": "Lancaster",
   "office": "Treasurer",
   "dem_side": "Rachel Garver (D, incumbent)",
   "rep_side": "Jasmine Gibson (R)",
   "share_2022": 54.3,
   "proxy_2022": null,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 60.5,
     "lo": 50.8,
     "hi": 69.3,
     "p_win": 96.3
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 60.8,
     "lo": 51.2,
     "hi": 69.6,
     "p_win": 96.6
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 59.4,
     "lo": 49.7,
     "hi": 68.3,
     "p_win": 94.5
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "county": "Lancaster",
   "office": "Clerk of the District Court (open seat)",
   "dem_side": "Kristen Anderson (D)",
   "rep_side": "Landon Parks (R)",
   "share_2022": 47.2,
   "proxy_2022": null,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 52.4,
     "lo": 43.0,
     "hi": 61.9,
     "p_win": 66.0
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 52.8,
     "lo": 43.3,
     "hi": 62.2,
     "p_win": 68.1
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 51.2,
     "lo": 41.9,
     "hi": 60.7,
     "p_win": 58.2
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "county": "Douglas",
   "office": "County Attorney",
   "dem_side": "Makayla Danner (D)",
   "rep_side": "Don Kleine (R, incumbent)",
   "share_2022": 43.1,
   "proxy_2022": null,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 48.8,
     "lo": 39.5,
     "hi": 58.3,
     "p_win": 42.2
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 49.2,
     "lo": 39.9,
     "hi": 58.7,
     "p_win": 44.9
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 47.6,
     "lo": 38.4,
     "hi": 57.1,
     "p_win": 34.4
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "county": "Douglas",
   "office": "Sheriff",
   "dem_side": "Mark Martinez (D)",
   "rep_side": "Aaron Hanson (R, incumbent)",
   "share_2022": 49.7,
   "proxy_2022": null,
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 55.1,
     "lo": 45.7,
     "hi": 64.0,
     "p_win": 81.4
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 55.5,
     "lo": 46.1,
     "hi": 64.4,
     "p_win": 83.1
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 53.9,
     "lo": 44.5,
     "hi": 62.9,
     "p_win": 75.6
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "county": "Douglas",
   "office": "Commissioner, District 6 (open seat)",
   "dem_side": "John McCann (D)",
   "rep_side": "Tim Donahue (R)",
   "share_2022": 37.3,
   "proxy_2022": "Douglas County Sheriff",
   "turnout": {
    "base": {
     "mid": 42.2,
     "lo": 32.7,
     "hi": 52.1,
     "p_win": 9.7
    },
    "2018": {
     "mid": 42.4,
     "lo": 33.0,
     "hi": 52.4,
     "p_win": 10.5
    },
    "2022": {
     "mid": 41.3,
     "lo": 32.0,
     "hi": 51.3,
     "p_win": 7.6
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "generic": {
  "averages": [
   {
    "average": "Decision Desk HQ average",
    "as_of": "2026-10-14",
    "dem": 50.2,
    "rep": 42.4
   },
   {
    "average": "FiftyPlusOne average",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "dem": 51.8,
    "rep": 42.8
   },
   {
    "average": "RealClearPolling average",
    "as_of": "2026-10-19",
    "dem": 50.8,
    "rep": 42.5
   },
   {
    "average": "US Polling Data average",
    "as_of": "2026-09-27",
    "dem": 49.3,
    "rep": 41.9
   }
  ],
  "mean_margin": 8.1,
  "swing_logit": 0.228,
  "passthrough": 0.8,
  "house_2024_dem_two_way": 48.7,
  "cross_check": "Silver Bulletin D+9.2, likely voters D+9.7 (21 October); margin only"
 },
 "senate_polls": [
  {
   "pollster": "Tavern Research",
   "lean": "none named",
   "fielded": "2026-05-08 to 2026-05-11",
   "osborn": 47.0,
   "ricketts": 42.0,
   "osborn_two_way": 52.8
  },
  {
   "pollster": "GBAO",
   "lean": "Osborn-aligned",
   "fielded": "2026-07-01 to 2026-07-31",
   "osborn": 47.0,
   "ricketts": 47.0,
   "osborn_two_way": 50.0
  },
  {
   "pollster": "Impact Research",
   "lean": "Osborn-aligned",
   "fielded": "2026-08-09 to 2026-08-13",
   "osborn": 47.0,
   "ricketts": 47.0,
   "osborn_two_way": 50.0
  },
  {
   "pollster": "GBAO",
   "lean": "Osborn-aligned",
   "fielded": "2026-09-03 to 2026-09-08",
   "osborn": 47.0,
   "ricketts": 46.0,
   "osborn_two_way": 50.5
  },
  {
   "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
   "lean": "none named",
   "fielded": "2026-09-08 to 2026-09-13",
   "osborn": 46.0,
   "ricketts": 42.0,
   "osborn_two_way": 52.3
  },
  {
   "pollster": "co/efficient",
   "lean": "Republican",
   "fielded": "2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30",
   "osborn": 40.0,
   "ricketts": 45.0,
   "osborn_two_way": 47.1
  },
  {
   "pollster": "YouGov",
   "lean": "none named",
   "fielded": "2026-09-24 to 2026-10-03",
   "osborn": 48.0,
   "ricketts": 47.0,
   "osborn_two_way": 50.5
  },
  {
   "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
   "lean": "Republican",
   "fielded": "2026-10-02 to 2026-10-05",
   "osborn": 43.0,
   "ricketts": 46.0,
   "osborn_two_way": 48.3
  }
 ],
 "polls_2024_bias": 3.0,
 "early_vote": {
  "county": "Lancaster",
  "days_out": 12,
  "by_cycle": [
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    "returned": 16574,
    "share_of_final": 60,
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    "rep": 40.0,
    "lead": 7.4,
    "lead_at_end": 7.9
   },
   {
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    "returned": 12771,
    "share_of_final": 60,
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    "rep": 37.9,
    "lead": 13.3,
    "lead_at_end": 8.5
   },
   {
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    "returned": 20129,
    "share_of_final": 59,
    "dem": 50.5,
    "rep": 36.6,
    "lead": 13.8,
    "lead_at_end": 7.9
   },
   {
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    "returned": 17868,
    "share_of_final": 55,
    "dem": 49.1,
    "rep": 37.3,
    "lead": 11.8,
    "lead_at_end": 7.6
   },
   {
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    "share_of_final": 80,
    "dem": 48.5,
    "rep": 32.9,
    "lead": 15.7,
    "lead_at_end": 12.0
   },
   {
    "year": 2022,
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    "share_of_final": 60,
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    "lead_at_end": 9.8
   },
   {
    "year": 2024,
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    "share_of_final": 65,
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    "rep": 36.7,
    "lead": 9.0,
    "lead_at_end": 5.6
   },
   {
    "year": 2026,
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    "dem": 49.1,
    "rep": 32.9,
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    "lead_at_end": null
   }
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   },
   {
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    "other_over_r": 0.96
   }
  ]
 }
}